The Trump Administration’s tough stance on tariffs has dramatically increased the prospects of higher inflation and reduced the outlook for economic growth in 2025, according to Ed Sullivan, economist at The Sullivan Report.
“Indeed, a recession cannot be ruled out this year,” said Sullivan.
Adverse economic momentum, once in place, is hard to reverse, explained Sullivan in his latest report. Initial steps by the Federal Reserve to lower rates will likely be modest and is expected to miss seasonal peak construction. This all implies a policy of too little, too late to prevent a significant slowdown for the U.S. economy in 2025.
Lastly, supply conditions could rob further strength from the cement market. According to various estimates, 450,000 undocumented persons work in the construction industry. The new immigration policies will likely magnify this labor shortage and could further reduce overall construction.
Altogether, the U.S. cement market is expected to record another year of decline. The decline could be significant. U.S. cement consumption volumes are expected to recede below 100 million metric tons – a level not seen since 2019.
The Sullivan Report can be viewed here.
