U.S. cement consumption is expected to decline by 1.6% this year, but a recession prompted by ongoing trade wars is not expected in 2025. The predictions were included in the American Cement Association’s (ACA) Market Intelligence team’s Spring Forecast, released last week at the 67th IEEE-IAS/ACA Cement Conference in Birmingham, Ala.
“’Uncertainty’ is a key consideration for the construction industry’s outlook in the near term,” said Trevor Storck, ACA regional economist. “The cement industry’s baseline assumes continued improvement in trade negotiations, like the progress seen this week with China. This will provide relief to markets and help restore some investor confidence, supporting a rebound in economic activity.
“But it’s important to note that elevated interest rates that hindered construction activity last year are still in place and continue to play a role in this year’s projections.”
Key data points in the ACA Market Intelligence economic forecast include:
- ACA’s baseline calls for the economy to narrowly avoid a recession this year before stronger growth returns in 2026 and 2027.
- Labor markets are expected to continue cooling in 2025, without a significant rise in unemployment.
- The key headwind facing housing remains affordability. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices will take time to rebalance, holding back growth in near-term home building.
- Outside of strong growth in data center construction, commercial markets are expected to continue easing in 2025.
- Highways and streets construction has been plagued by the high inflationary environment of recent years.
- This effect is slowing but states’ expenditure growth is also easing.
- In total, there is no obvious driver for cement consumption growth during 2025.
- However, as headwinds fade, modest cement consumption growth returns in 2026 before more robust growth in 2027.
