It’s a new year, and that means everyone has an analysis of the cement market. I attended the Intercem conference in Miami last October, and Colin Sutherland of SG Analytics assessed the market in coming years, stating that “After a long period of steady consumption growth, including 2018, our baseline forecast shows overall U.S. cement demand remaining more or less steady in 2019.” He predicted a period of moderate growth beginning in 2020.
The World Cement Association (WCA) expects the U.S. cement market in 2019 will grow at a moderate pace, around 3 percent lower than in 2018, after a hoped-for market bump associated with the Trump administration’s large infrastructure investments failed to materialize. Escalating trade wars between the United States and China and its disruptive spillover will cause a serious setback for the global growth, said WCA. Economic growth expectations have deteriorated in developed markets on the back of higher trade costs and tightening financial policies, as well as in major emerging markets due to higher borrowing costs, vulnerable exchange rates and reduced capital inflow.
The Portland Cement Association Market Intelligence Group forecast for cement consumption over the next two years, shows less growth compared with 2018. This year’s rate of change is 2.9 percent; growth recedes to 2.6 percent in 2019 and to 1.6 percent in 2020.
It looks like everyone is on the same boat: A stable market in the short term, growth in the long term.
