The Market Intelligence Group at the Portland Cement Association (PCA) released a webinar explaining adjustments to its winter forecast due to the United States’ bumpy COVID-19 vaccine rollout.
Ed Sullivan, PCA’s senior vice president and chief economist, predicted robust economic recovery accompanying widespread vaccine distribution, which now may be delayed a full quarter or more. The assessment reflects the association’s knowledge of the United States’ vaccine supply. If correct, slower than expected economic activity, construction, and cement consumption may materialize in 2021 compared to the December forecast.
PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption will grow by nearly 1% in 2021, fueled largely by residential construction. Nonresidential construction is expected to perform weakly and soft economic activity will add to state government’s fiscal duress. Without new federal COVID-19 relief targeting state government, public construction could act as a drag on 2021 cement consumption growth.